The Fuquay-Varina offense looks for running room in the first half.
Nov 3, 2008
Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 has been carried on HighSchoolOT.com all season, an as useful as Pasteur's computer rankings are, this week's features regarding the playoffs will be just as useful.
The Fantastic 50 has predicted many things involving the playoffs, including the big-small split. In other words, who will go to the 4-AA and who will go to the 4-A.
The divisions are determined by the N.C. High School Athletic Association using this year's adjusted average daily membership numbers, or ADM's, which were released last week. The official division will not be made until the 64 qualifying teams are determined. Of those 64 qualifying teams, the largest 32 will go to 4-AA, and the smallest 32 will go to 4-A.
According to Pasteur, the dividing line is likely to be around Wake Forest-Rolesville and Fuquay-Varina.
Wake Forest-Rolesville has a 98-percent chance of going to the 4-AA, while Fuquay-Varina has a 63-percent chance of going to the 4-A. Directly under Fuquay-Varina is New Bern, and the Bears have a 99-percent chance of going to the 4-A playoffs.
Pasteur has also made predictions about the playoff bubble. Below is a general look at the likelihood of a team making the playoffs with a given record. According to Pasteur, even teams with five overall wins and one conference win are not guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
5 wins, 2+ conference wins - Guaranteed a playoff berth
5 wins, 1 conference win - 99%
4 wins, 4 conference wins - 82%
4 wins, 3 conference wins - 23%
4 wins, 2 conference wins - 0.6%
4 wins, 1 conference win - 0.1%
3 wins, any conference wins - No chance at a playoff berth.
Here are the local teams that Pasteur names as bubble teams.
Northern Durham (4-6) (3 conf.) 99% (no wins-47% 1 win-100% )
Sanderson (5-5) (1 conf.) 99% (no wins-99% 1 win-100% )
Cary (4-6) (4 conf.) 92% (no wins-90% 1 win-100% )
Middle Creek (4-6) (3 conf.) 85% (no wins-41% 1 win-100% )
Knightdale (4-6) (3 conf.) 83% (no wins-41% 1 win-100% )
Athens Drive (3-7) (3 conf.) 80% (no wins-0% 1 win-87% )
Clayton (3-7) (2 conf.) 3% (no wins-0% 1 win-14% )
Person County (3-7) (2 conf.) 2% (no wins-0% 1 win-14% )
HighSchoolOT.com will be projecting the playoff brackets this week. Be on the lookout for in-depth playoff projections and playoff coverage. The official brackets will be released Saturday afternoon or evening. HighSchoolOT.com will have the posted as soon as possible, with commentary and predictions following.
Also, be sure to join us on Sunday evening at 8 p.m. for a special interactive live blog for the playoffs.
Special thanks to Drew Pasteur for allowing HighSchoolOT.com to post this information. For more information from Pasteur and his Fantastic 50, visit the new Web site, Fantastic50.net.
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