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HighSchoolOT.com projects final two weeks, playoff brackets

By Nick Stevens, HighSchoolOT.com reporter

Oct 30, 2008

RALEIGH — HighSchoolOT.com has teamed up with NationalSportsRankings.com all season long to bring our readers a computer simulation of premiere high school football games from the Triangle. This week, the two Web sites are teaming up to project the final two weeks of the regular season and the playoff brackets.

The process started by simulating each remaining regular season game involving a 4-A team 25 times. Whichever team won the most games was deemed the winner for the sake of our playoff projections. After all remaining games were simulated, we came up with the final conference standings, thus getting the automatic bids from each conference.

To view the simulated games, click here.

The top three teams from each 4-A conference get automatic bids into the playoffs. The top two teams from split conferences get automatic bids. There are 15 conference champions with automatic bids, 15 second place teams, and 11 third place teams. That leaves 23 at-large bids.

These projections are based off of last year's Average Daily Membership numbers. The Department of Public Instruction released the raw ADM numbers this week, but the N.C. High School Athletic Association has adjustments to make to them before they are ready to be used for seeding purposes. The adjusted ADM numbers are expected to be released at the end of the week or early next week, but there should not be many major changes.

Join HighSchoolOT.com's Nick Stevens Wednesday night at 8 p.m. for an interactive live chat on HighSchoolOT.com. The playoff proejctions are sure to be a hot topic.

Here are the projected playoff brackets:

4-AA East

7. Leesville Road
10. Garner

2. Wake Forest-Rolesville
15. Jordan

6. New Bern
11. Pinecrest

3. Southeast Raleigh
14. Lumberton

8. West Johnston
9. Millbrook

1. Jack Britt
16. Wakefield

5. South View
12. Enloe

4. Apex
13. Broughton

4-AA West

7. East Burke
10. Davie County

2. Vance
15. Hopewell

6. Northwest Guilford
11. North Mecklenburg

3. West Mecklenburg
14. Richmond County

8. West Charlotte
9. East Mecklenburg

1. Butler
16. Providence

5. Independence
12. Page

4. West Forsyth
13. Myers Park

4-A East

7. Laney
10. Terry Sanford

2. Hillside
15. Northern Durham

6. J.H. Rose
11. Middle Creek

3. Seventy-First
14. New Hanover

8. Douglas Byrd
9. Southern Durham

1. Hoggard
16. Pine Forest

5. Cape Fear
12. Smithfield-Selma

4. Fuquay-Varina
13. Knightdale

4-A West

7. Harding University
10. High Point Central

2. East Forsyth
15. South Mecklenburg

6. Ashbrook
11. Watauga

3. A.C. Reynolds
14. Hoke County

8. South Caldwell
9. North Forsyth

1. Mount Tabor
16. Ardrey-Kell

5. Chapel Hill
12. Purnell Swett

4. Crest
13. North Davidson

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13 Comments

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WFR has to win against Millbrook and Leesville. These two games are their hardest of the season and yes, I am including Southern Durham! They are a disaplined team, but I don't see the greatness that is ascribed to them. WFR got two touchdowns on unforced fumbles within the five yard at Southern Durham. They are a very good team, but Leesville is the team to beat. We will see?

beaufort007
October 31, 2008 12:05 p.m.
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The computer picked Apex to beat Fuquay 15/25 times by an average of 2 points, so we went with Apex in this projection.

I don't think you can say they're "overrated" since they aren't ranked by these brackets. They are just put in order based on seed & overall record.

Nick Stevens
October 30, 2008 1:26 p.m.
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Nick, does Apex with the 4 seed in the 4AA and Fuquay with a 4 seed in the 4A mean that Apex will beat Fuquay this week? and i agree with wolfpacks statement above.

fuquayboy257
October 30, 2008 11:07 a.m.
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You're right Footballer

Nick Stevens
October 30, 2008 9:20 a.m.
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If Millbrook wins out and Leesville beats WFR then WFR will have two conference losses and would be tied with Millbrook for second in conference and MBK would win the tiebreaker. Thats the only way Millbrook could come in 2nd in conference.

NCSTATE61
October 30, 2008 7:57 a.m.
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So you're projecting that Butler will beat Independence the last week of the regular season? Hmmmmm, should be a good game down there in Charlotte next week.....

therockm110
October 30, 2008 12:10 a.m.
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They would be tied with Leesville for 2nd in the conference, and Leesville has the tie breaker, so Millbrook would be 3rd.

Nick Stevens
October 30, 2008 12:03 a.m.
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They need to redo how they do the rankings for that playoffs. Sure if a team is second in their conference they should have a high seed, but when that team is from the Tri-8 or Greater Neuse which is down this year there should be an excpetion. Also, Millbrook can come in 2nd in conference. With a win this week v. WFR and WFR gets beat by Leesville and Millbrook beats Enloe they would then ve 2nd in conference.

NCSTATE61
October 29, 2008 8:10 p.m.
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Millbrook won't have a home game because they are going to have the 3rd place seed from the Cap 7. That means all the 1st place and 2nd place teams have to be seeded before them, then the third place teams get seeded in order of overall record. Millbrook also won't be able to drop a loss this season because all of their losses came in conference.

Nick Stevens
October 29, 2008 7:42 p.m.
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In this scenario, SER would be a 4-AA team. They were not in the 4-A bracket last season, they were in the 4-AA bracket and lost to Leesville Road in the first round.

The NCHSAA does not pre-determine which teams will go to 4-A and which teams will go to 4-AA. They take the "top" 64 4-A teams, then divide them in half based on their ADM numbers. The highest 32 go to 4-AA, the smallest go to 4-A. It all depends on who makes it, and who doesn't. If these 64 teams are the 64 teams in the playoffs, SER will be 4-AA again this year.

Nick Stevens
October 29, 2008 7:40 p.m.
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