HighSchool OT

Forecasting the 4-AA playoffs

By Tim Candon
Nov 13, 2008

NCHSAA Football - Generic Graphic

As promised, here are my picks for the 4-AA playoffs (winners in bold). In case you missed my 4-A projections, click here.

Round 1

(10) West Johnston (7-3) at (7) Apex (8-2)
(15) Southern Pines Pinecrest (6-4) at (2) Wilmington Hoggard (9-1)

(11) Wakefield (7-3) at (6) Lumberton (8-2)
(14) Jordan (6-4) at (3) Wake Forest-Rolesville (9-1)

(9) Millbrook (8-2) at (8) Garner (7-3)
(16) Sanderson (5-5) at (1) Fayetteville Britt (9-1)

(12) Enloe (6-4) at (5) Leesville Road (8-2)
(13) Broughton (6-4) at (4) Hope Mills South View (7-3)

Round 2

(10) West Johnston @ (2) Wilmington Hoggard
(11) Wakefield @ (3) Wake Forest-Rolesville

(5) Leesville Road @ (4) Hope Mills South View
(9) Millbrook @ (1) Fayetteville Britt

Round 3

(3) Wake Forest-Rolesville @ (2) Wilmington Hoggard
(5) Leesville Road @ (1) Fayetteville Britt

Round 4

(2) Wilmington Hoggard @ (1) Fayetteville Britt

Wake County’s championship game drought continues. Since 1959, when the NCHSAA introduced the 4-A class to football, only five teams from Wake County have played for a state championship. The last time was in 1998, when Garner lost to Richmond.

Wake Forest-Rolesville and Millbrook were trendy picks to end that drought, but their roads to the 4-AA final appear too difficult.

The Cougars won’t have it easy this week against Jordan. If my picks are right, then they’ll play an emotionally exhausting game against Wakefield, then they’ll have to travel to Wilmington the day after Thanksgiving to face the reigning 4-A state champions. That’s a tough, tough draw, and that’s just to get to the regional final.

Millbrook’s got an even tougher road. The Wildcats go to Garner this week, and they will see a completely different team than the one they hammered 34-0 to start the season. If they get out of Garner, and if my projections are correct, they’ll got to Jack Britt next week. If they beat the Buccaneers, they’ll have to go Leesville Road, where they were drilled 24-0 on Oct. 24. Again, that’s a brutal draw, and again, that’s just to get to the regional final.

I’ve (wrongly) doubted Leesville Road all season, so why change now?

So I arrived at Hoggard and Britt for the East Regional final, and they look to be pretty evenly matched.

Hoggard averages 358.5 yards of total offense and 28.0 points per game. Britt puts up 346.3 yards and 35.6 points per game. Hoggard allows 13.8 points per game, Britt 12.5

Hoggard has two 1,000-yard rushers (running back Rashaad McDonald and quarterback Brad Busby), and as a team, the Vikings this season have run for 2,773 yards and 27 touchdowns.

Britt has three players who have run for 500 yards or more (quarterback Everett Proctor, and running backs Eric Johnson and Tremale France), and as a team, the Buccaneers have rushed for 2,764 yards and 45 touchdowns.

All that said, I’m going to give the nod to Hoggard, for two reasons. First, Hoggard is the reigning 4-A state champion, so the Vikings know what it takes to get to the final. Two, their only loss this season was to undefeated Harnett Central, the top seed in the 3-AA playoffs. Britt’s only loss was to Richmond, which finished the season 7-3-1.

With all things being just about equal between those two, that’s how I arrived at Hoggard.

So what do you think? Is Hoggard going to play for the 4-AA championship, or will it be Britt? Will a Wake County team make it? If so, who? More importantly, why?