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Tim Candon

Forecasting the 4-A playoffs

By Tim Candon
Nov 13, 2008

NCHSAA Football - Generic Graphic

Several weeks ago, I threw up my hands and decided that this football season was impossible to figure out. After the 12-week regular season, no one emerged as the clear-cut, team-to-beat heading into the playoffs.

Instead, there are a lot of really, really, really good teams, and that parity should lead to a superb postseason.

So for the sake of discussion, here’s my predictions for the postseason. Below is the 4-A (winners in bold).

Click here for my 4-AA picks.

Round 1

(10) Smithfield-Selma (6-4) at (7) Middle Creek (4-6)
(15) Cary (4-6) at (2) Southeast Raleigh (9-1)

(11) Fayetteville Pine Forest (5-5) at (6) Hillside (9-0-1)
(14) Athens Drive (4-6) at (3) Southern Durham (8-2)

(9) New Bern (6-3-1) at (8) Fayetteville Douglas Byrd (8-2)
(16) Fayetteville Terry Sanford (4-6) at (1) Fuquay-Varina (10-0)

(12) Northern Durham (5-5) at (5) Wilmington New Hanover (6-4)
(13) Fayetteville Cape Fear (5-5) at (4) Greenville Rose (6-4)

Round 2

(10) SSS @ (2) Southeast Raleigh
(6) Hillside @ (3) Southern

(9) New Bern @ (1) Fuquay-Varina
(5) Wilmington New Hanover @ (4) Greenville Rose

Round 3

(6) Hillside @ (2) SE Raleigh
(9) New Bern @ (4) Greenville Rose

Round 4

(6) Hillside @ (4) Rose

If my bracket holds true, then Hillside will play in the 4-A state championship game. Why Hillside?

In all honesty, I was surprised when Hillside came out as my winner. But I’ve talked myself into the Hornets. Their No. 6 seed is deceptive. They tied for the PAC 6 title with Southern and Chapel Hill, but lost the draw for seeds and were dropped down.

They only lost one game, a 12-9 nailbiter at Southern on Sept. 26, a game the Hornets had every opportunity to win. If my bracket is correct, they'll have the chance to avenge that loss in the second round.

After the Southern loss, the Hornets won their final six games, four of them comfortably (by margins of 29, 24, 14, 14 points). They won their two close games (14-9 over Jordan and 34-31 over Chapel Hill).

Tailback Desmond Scott’s been on a tear. He’s got five straight 100-yard games, and he rushed for 1,486 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. He’s averaging a mind-boggling 9.1 yards per carry. Quarterback Corey Gattis has passed for 1,952 yards and 12 touchdowns (against four interceptions), and he’s completing 63 percent of his passes. Gattis is also a threat to run. He has 417 yards and nine touchdowns on 66 carries this season.Sophomore receiver Vad Lee has nearly half the team’s receptions (47) for 928 yards and seven touchdowns.

And the Hornets have got a pretty good defense, allowing 13.8 points per game. The most points they allowed this season was 31 to Chapel Hill. None of their other 10 opponents scored more than 19.

What do you think? Will Hillside be the East team in Chapel Hill on Dec. 13? If not the Hornets, then who?

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11 Comments

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Honkodeler, I cringed when I heard Rose lost. If this were an NCAA tournament bracket, mine fell apart on the first round. I'm awful at picking games.

tcandon
November 17, 2008 10:47 p.m.
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if 71st gets to states from the west..none of these schools will beat them..MIDSE all the way

vancefabian
November 17, 2008 9:55 p.m.
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Now im not a trash talker and i play for southern durham i dont see anyone holding us back from going to states hillside will be our toughest match but we will beat them once agian and fuquay is a joke we scrimmaged them this year and scored on them atleast 6 times in 10 minutes they didnt score at all

jackpage56
November 17, 2008 9:39 a.m.
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what'd i tell you about rose, tim?

honkodeler
November 16, 2008 10:24 p.m.
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Fuquay will be state champions. Their defense is too strong and with people like Corey Hunter putting up numbers like he has, we are going to be hard to beat, especially at home.

garrettriley87
November 15, 2008 12:31 a.m.
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i have faith in my alta mater southern durham if we can execute we can beat hillside. im a pac 6 fan so know matter what i'll be wanting a durham team to take home the state championship

mort89
November 14, 2008 11:38 p.m.
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I just don't see how you can have Fuquay losing in the 2nd round, i agree that the #1 seed may be a bit a high for Fuquay, but clearly they know what they're doing. Give them some credit.

gregsonml
November 14, 2008 5:25 p.m.
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fuquay is a joke we beat them at their place it wasnt even close. why all the 4a coverage hchs is better than all wake county schools you will see next season.

michnodevilfan
November 14, 2008 9:21 a.m.
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Fuquay.... State Champs, theyve got the best discipline and focus in the state, they also have a coach that I consider one of the best.The biggest thing is the home field advantage. It will be at least the 4th round before the Bengals Lose.

untitled
November 13, 2008 9:43 p.m.
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I know Rose is down compared to their state championship teams of a few years ago, but they've got a fairly easy bracket. Their first-round game's a no-brainer, and they beat New Hanover (15-14) and New Bern (21-3) in the regular season. Flawed as it might be, that's my logic.

tcandon
November 13, 2008 5:51 p.m.
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