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Nick Stevens

A jumbled mess in the Tri-8


Nov 1, 2008

Athens Drive vs. Middle Creek on October 31, 2008_08

The Middle Creek defense wraps up an Athens Drive offensive player.

The Tri-Eight Conference Championship has been decided, but there is something very intriguing going on in the all important third place spot.

Cary coach Ben Kolstad told me a few weeks ago that his team couldn't harp on the loss to Athens Drive, instead, he said his team needed to win the rest of their games and they would be the conference champions.

Well, they didn't win the rest of their games. They lost to Apex - barely. And now the Imps are in a battle for the third place spot in the Tri-Eight.

So, why is this third place spot so important? Because it is the last team to get an automatic bid to the playoffs in November.

N.C. High School Athletic Association rules state that a team must have at least four overall wins to get into the playoffs as an at-large team. Well, this season, four wins won't get you in at the 4-A or 4-AA level, so whichever teams ends up in third place in the Tri-Eight will likely be the last team in from that conference.

Athens Drive played Middle Creek on Friday night, and Middle Creek came away the victors, 25-20. Meanwhile, Cary defeated Panther Creek, 10-7.

Here are the conference standings for the Tri-Eight after week eleven, headed into the final week of the regular season:

1. Fuquay-Varina (9-1, 6-0)
2. Apex (7-3, 5-1)
3. Cary (4-6, 4-2)
T4. Middle Creek (4-6, 3-3) *Middle Creek holds head-to-head tie breaker*
T4. Athens Drive (3-7, 3-3)
6. Panther Creek (2-8, 2-4)
7. Lee County (2-8, 1-5)
8. Green Hope (0-10, 0-6)

While Cary is still ahead of Middle Creek and Athens Drive by one game, they have to play Fuquay-Varina. After seeing Fuquay tonight against Apex, I think it is a safe bet to say the Bengals win that one.

Middle Creek will have to play Panther Creek. I think Middle Creek wins that one, although I expect it to be pretty close, probably within a touchdown or so.

Athens Drive has the easier of the three teams. The Jaguars will play winless Green Hope on Friday night. I'm taking Athens Drive to win that one.

That would leave the three teams in question with identical conference records of 4-3. With no more games left, the conference will have to look at head-to-head competition to break the tie.

Athens Drive beat Cary, Cary beat Middle Creek, and Middle Creek beat Athens Drive. So, head-to-head competition to break the tie is now out of the question.

What does that mean? That means the tie will be broken by... drum roll please... a draw. That's right, the luck of the draw will likely determine which of the three teams goes to the playoffs, and which two stay home.

Kind of similar to Friday Night Lights, huh?

One other thing to think about is, if Cary and Middle Creek both lose, but Athens Drive wins, the Jags are going to the playoffs because they own the head-to-head tie-breaker over Cary.

Anyway, in a conference that has been down all season, there is some reason to be very excited in the last week.

We'll be on top of it next week, so stay tuned!

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11 Comments



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Interesting... I'm working on our projections now with the new ADM numbers. I have only had a chance to glance at them, so I don't really know what to expect.

I'm not sure why Lake Norman is in 4A... They've got a few schools that are mixed up by class. Kind of strange.
Nick Stevens
November 3, 2008 8:52 a.m.
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So in this case if broughton sanderson and West Mecklenburg make it in then both Fuquay and Wake Forest Rolesville will be 4A. Also on the ADM numbers why is Lake Norman High on the 4A list when they are a 3A team?
untitled
November 2, 2008 10:17 p.m.
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I used information from Drew Pasteurs Fantastic 50. There are 30 teams with larger ADMs than Fuquay that either have already clinched a playoff berth or could lose this week and still have higher than a 90% chance of making the playoffs. There are a few others that are eliminated, and West Mecklenburg only has to win to garuntee a playoff berth. The 32nd team larger than fuquay to get in would be either sanderson or broughton. The winner of that game clinches a playoff berth, while the loser still has about a 75% chance of making it in.
untitled
November 2, 2008 10:13 p.m.
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How do you figure that, untitled? There are too many games that make a difference on Friday... Tie-breakers to be drawn, etc to come up with a specific dividing line.
Nick Stevens
November 2, 2008 9:32 p.m.
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Hey Nick, Nick, I did some number crunching and have come to the conclusion that if West Mecklenburg wins friday then the cut off line for 4A-4AA is every team from WF-Rolesville up 4AA Fuquay Down Would be 4A. If west meck loses then it has a 74% chance of being the same and a 26% chance of the line being Fuquay Up 4AA and New Bern Down 4A
untitled
November 2, 2008 4:39 p.m.
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Nick, How deep of a playoff run do you think fuquay can make?
untitled
November 2, 2008 4:20 p.m.
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dont worry we wont
bengalline50
November 2, 2008 2:00 p.m.
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He was saying that if Cary won out, they wouldn't have to worry about their loss to Athens Drive because it wouldn't be an issue.

Cary just about beat Apex last week. Fuquay better not overlook them.
Nick Stevens
November 2, 2008 1:48 a.m.
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Has Kolstad lost his mind? What was he thinking making a statement like that? He had to know that either Fuquay or Apex were going to run the table through the conference and win it out right.
jrcostilow
November 2, 2008 1:40 a.m.
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GO GREEN HOPE WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! I KNOW YOU CAN DO IT, ONLY ONE LOSS AWAY!!!
jrcostilow
November 2, 2008 1:31 a.m.
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