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Nick Stevens

Nick's Last Minute Picks: Halloween edition

By Nick Stevens
Oct 31, 2008

Happy Halloween everybody! I'm not going to go on and on about Halloween because by picks have been scary enough this season, but am I predicting some ghoulish things to happen tonight? Perhaps. But the more likely scenario would be me putting a curse on the teams I predict to win.

The Athens Drive Jaguars are going to do a devilish deed on Friday night, knocking Middle Creek out of all playoff contentions, but it should solidifiy Athens' playoff berth. Well, unless those mini-devils, otherwise known as Imps, can pull off two back-to-back wins, then, things get interesting next week.

Fuquay-Varina and Apex have their showdown tonight, and I'll be there to witness it. Can Apex's offense move the ball against the Fuquay defense? How many turnovers with the Cougars have?

I'm even predicting Green Hope to win on Friday night, and I think Millbrook will knock off Wake Forest-Rolesville. But this is October 31st, Friday the 31st, it's high school football on Halloween night. Who will win? Who will lose? Is this the night of upsets? I don't think so.

Nick's Last Minute Picks

Athens Drive at Middle Creek - Athens Drive

Broughton at Wakefield - Wakefield

Cary at Panther Creek - Cary

Chapel Hill at Riverside - Chapel Hill

East Chapel Hill at Southern Durham - Southern Durham

Enloe at Sanderson - Enloe

Fuquay-Varina at Apex - Fuquay-Varina

Garner at East Wake - Garner

Jordan at Person - Jordan

Knightdale at Clayton - Knightdale

Lee County at Green Hope - Green Hope

Northern Durham at Hillside - Hillside

Southeast Raleigh at Holly Springs - Southeast Raleigh

Wake Forest-Rolesville at Millbrook - Millbrook

West Johnston at Smithfield-Selma - West Johnston

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I know that's how things work, but it just seems like they would want to make that clear in the Handbook... It would certainly help clear up this conversation that we're having, and they've got conflicting information in there.

Nick Stevens
October 31, 2008 3:02 p.m.
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Misleading or not. The way I've described it is how it has worked for years now with the same terminology in the handbook and that is how it will work this year.

As Drew is prognosticating over at his website if you don't have 5 overall wins and you are not an automatic bid, the chances of making the playoffs this year will be difficult.

This year's playoff field, especially at the potential 4AA East and West is going to be loaded, with the likes of teams like Richmond County, Leesville, Millbrook or WFR and Garner potentially being sub 8 seeds.

durhamfbfan
October 31, 2008 2:56 p.m.
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I've gone back and read and re-read the Handbook and it is VERY misleading.

Under "PLAYOFF BERTHS/QUALIFICATION" it says, "If too many teams qualify using the criteria in #1 and #2 above, we would use the number of conference wins to determine the qualifiers.

But a few bullet points down under "SEEDING" it says:

"Seed all other qualifying teams (those with four or more wins) based only on their overall won/loss record, regardless of conference finish."

Nick Stevens
October 31, 2008 2:52 p.m.
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That is strange. The handbook clearly says "If too many teams qualify using the criteria in #1 and #2 above, we would use the number of conference wins to determine the qualifiers".

Criteria #1 is the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Criteria #2 is 4 wins. There will clearly be more than 64 teams with 4 wins, so according to their own written rules, it should be conference wins not total wins.

cgreen
October 31, 2008 2:51 p.m.
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Continuing on, for that matter you could possibly, especially in the split conferences have a team with even less than 4 wins make it as an automatic bid while no 4 win at-large teams make it.

If they reach a point where all of the 4 win at-large teams have been eliminated, they'll begin to look at the group of 5 win teams and compare their conference records. Those with 0 conference wins will be eliminated and so forth.

durhamfbfan
October 31, 2008 2:51 p.m.
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What Nick is saying is correct.

This is straight from the NCHSAA. This has been the case for every year we have subdivided. End of story.

They will do exactly what I explained earlier. You are correct, the terminology in the handbook is a bit misleading if you have more than 64 teams with 4 wins added to the automatic bids. But, if you talk to anyone over at NCHSAA you'll find, and this has been consistent in my dealings that if there are more than 64 teams with 4 wins combined with the automatic bids they'll do the following:

(a) take all of the 4 win teams (going on 10 game record) and eliminate those with 0 conference wins, then those with 1 conference win and so forth. They will continue until they reach 64 teams (this only applies to at-large schools, not automatic bid teams). In other words, you could have a 4 win automatic team and no 4 win at large teams.

durhamfbfan
October 31, 2008 2:49 p.m.
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That's the explanation I got today. I sent him an email to ask for clarification and that's what he told me.

Nick Stevens
October 31, 2008 2:42 p.m.
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Nick -- I could have gotten the story mixed up, so if you had not heard that Wilkinson was hurt then I'm at fault. Hopefully, Wilkison and Browning will both be healthy and will both have great games. Sorry, didn't mean to pass off bad info.

scooper7
October 31, 2008 2:36 p.m.
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So, Nick, are you saying that is the explanation you just got from Rick Strunk today, or one you got a few weeks ago?

cgreen
October 31, 2008 2:31 p.m.
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I don't know scooper. I had not heard that. That would impact my prediction, though. But Broughton has been pretty banged up too, so I don't know how all those injuries would impact the game. Losing Wilkinson is huge for Wakefield if that is true.

Nick Stevens
October 31, 2008 2:19 p.m.
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